The NFL bye week is a factor many recreational gamers don’t pay enough attention to. When you consider your novice sports bettor, and also you spot the sort of betting line containing you quickly visiting Google News as well as your favorite sports stat site to ascertain if a player is injured, don’t forget to also notice if this team’s opponent is originating off a bye. For all those advanced sports bettors dealing with the bye week, I’ll cover some more impressive range research and insights about the bye in this article. Prior to getting for that, I’ll address some general points for everyone uncertain exactly what a bye week is, or which weeks teams have byes.
While you probably know, sbo consists of each team playing 16 games. In 1990, the league changed into a 17 week season so that you can profit more from television advertising. This left each team using a single week off in the course of the season termed as a bye week. The bye week was previously random spanning within the entire season, nevertheless in 2004 to create a more uniform schedule for the playoff race, the format was changed. The way it works now could be bye weeks always fall between weeks 4 and 10. As being a sports bettor, you’ll have to pay extra attention during weeks 5-11 for teams coming off a bye, since they have the benefit of additional time to rest, get healthy, practice and prepare.
While we won’t include this in our analysis, one other area recreational bettors need to concentrate on is Thursday games. Starting week 10 in the NFL season you will discover a single Thursday night game, and so on Thanksgiving there are two additional Thursday day games. This means that on Thursday, teams will often be playing on short rest, which is usually the case both for teams; therefore it is not something to think about. Where it will become a concern will be the following week. Here, teams are coming off added rest and may achieve a similar advantage to normally the one they already have from your bye week. Make sure when creating bets on the NFL to pay for attention both to teams coming away from the bye, as well as to teams coming off a Thursday game.
Given that this isn’t articles about statistical handicapping models, a topic which 95% of readers may find too advanced, I won’t go into it in far more detail than to create a single statement after which support it. That statement: the higher a team is, the greater they benefit from the bye week. This is not a theory, but something well quantified via statistical analysis the best odds makers are familiar with. To provide you with a small clue, the modifier for teams coming off a bye is really a multiplier according to power rankings. All teams enjoy the bye week, but how much they benefit is proportional to how good of the team they may be.
If the above statement is at all confusing, don’t sweat it. I’ll share some basic stats regarding how well teams coming away from the bye week have fared that may help you understand the lines just a little better.
On the four latest seasons (2007-2010), in games where just one single team is originating away from the bye, the group coming off the bye has a record of 65-54-1 straight up, and 61-44-5 from the spread.
Now, if you’re contemplating betting teams coming from the bye as the past 4 years they’ve covered 58.1% of times, read my article in the current betting market. A system such as that could been employed in 2006; but, more likely than not, this trend won’t continue. This is because today NFL betting line is much more efficient, as well as the market will likely correct itself.
The typical ATS data is nice, but it really doesn’t inform us much unless we break it down further. After doing so, an even more interesting trend appears. Using the same 110 game sample, teams coming off of the bye week which are favored use a record of 48-12 straight up and 36-20-4 ATS, while underdogs coming off of the bye have a record of 17-32-1 straight up and 25-24-1 ATS.
The sample size on road favorites is pretty small, but 15-1-2 from the spread is massively impressive, nonetheless. To talk about a remote stat from an article I wrote a few dexmpky72 back, from 1990 to 2008 (spanning a 150 game sample size), road favored teams coming off a bye week covered the spread nearly 70% of times.
To return to and acquire more accurate 4 year numbers for many favorites coming off the bye, there are actually 9 games missing from your 110 sample size I used. It is because 9 times since 2007 there were games where both teams were coming from the bye. (32×4=128), I purchased the 110 sample size because 18 from the byes were not highly relevant to opening discussion.
Your data here strongly supports that good teams take advantage of the bye a lot more than the industry is providing them credit for. I have faith that that because only good teams are favored on the streets in the NFL. Using just road favorites is quirky, however, and some might consider this “data mining”, even if this trend is well founded when going back much beyond 2007. If we’re gonna really consider this thorough, though, we should take a look at subsets of most favorites disregarding home and away, as that’s that are part of the spread.